At the FED Show in Madrid, Maria Rua Aguete, Omdia’s Head of Media & Entertainment, unveiled a data set that paints a stark picture of where the media landscape is headed. According to her analysis, combined revenues from traditional television and online video are on track to break the $1 trillion barrier by the end of the decade, rising from $775 billion in 2025 to $1.03 trillion in 2030. The growth is not evenly distributed across formats; digital advertising, especially on social‑video platforms, is the primary engine propelling the market forward.
A Shift from Linear to Digital
The numbers tell a clear story: while total revenues are expanding, the composition of that revenue is changing dramatically. Linear TV advertising, once the cornerstone of the industry, is expected to dip from $123 billion in 2025 to $113 billion five years later, shrinking its share from 16 percent to 11 percent of the overall pie. Pay‑TV subscriptions and transaction‑based income are also on a downward trajectory, slipping from $169 billion to $159 billion in the same period. These declines mirror the well‑documented “cord‑cutting” phenomenon, where viewers abandon traditional bundles in favor of on‑demand, internet‑based services.
Social Video Takes the Lead
In contrast, online video advertising is projected to surge from $309 billion in 2025 to $540 billion by 2030, lifting its contribution from 40 percent to a commanding 53 percent of total revenues. The bulk of this growth will be generated by social‑video platforms—Meta, TikTok, and YouTube—collectively expected to deliver roughly $400 billion in streaming ad spend by 2030. Aguete summed up the trend succinctly:
“Social video advertising is becoming the dominant force, reshaping how content is consumed and monetized,” said Maria Rua Aguete, Head of Media & Entertainment at Omdia.
The migration toward short‑form, mobile‑first video is not merely a matter of format preference; it reflects deeper changes in how audiences discover and engage with content. Algorithms that surface personalized clips, coupled with creator ecosystems that churn out a constant stream of material, are driving higher engagement rates and, consequently, higher ad revenues.
Subscription and Transactional Video Remain Relevant—But Slower
While ad‑driven growth dominates headlines, subscription‑based and transactional video services are not disappearing. Omdia forecasts these segments will climb from $174 billion in 2025 to $216 billion in 2030. However, the pace of expansion is expected to decelerate as the market matures and advertisers increasingly favor performance‑based models. The shift suggests that premium content providers will need to rethink pricing strategies and perhaps integrate more ad‑supported tiers to stay competitive.
Why the Forecast Matters to B2B Marketers
For agencies, brands, and technology vendors, the implications are immediate. Budget allocations that once favored linear TV spots are likely to be re‑balanced toward programmatic advertising social‑video inventory. Platforms that can deliver precise audience targeting, real‑time bidding, and robust measurement will become essential tools in any media‑mix strategy. Moreover, the projected $400 billion in social‑video ad spend underscores the importance of creative formats that can capture attention within seconds—a challenge that demands sophisticated creative‑ops capabilities and AI‑driven optimization.
Industry Voices Echo the Data
Aguete’s remarks at the FED Show were not isolated opinions; they echo a broader consensus among analysts who have been tracking the rise of “short‑form video” as a primary driver of ad spend. The forecast aligns with recent earnings reports from major platforms that have highlighted double‑digit growth in video ad revenue. While the exact numbers differ across firms, the direction—away from linear broadcast and toward algorithm‑curated, mobile‑first experiences—is consistent.
“The industry is undergoing a profound transformation,” said Maria Rua Aguete. “Social video advertising is becoming the dominant force, reshaping how content is consumed and monetized. Meanwhile, traditional models such as linear TV and pay TV are in structural decline.”
Competitive Landscape: Who’s Poised to Win?
The data set places three platforms—Meta, TikTok, and YouTube—at the heart of the upcoming revenue surge. Each brings a distinct value proposition: Meta’s extensive user graph, TikTok’s algorithmic virality engine, and YouTube’s massive library of long‑form and short‑form content. For advertisers, the choice among them will hinge on audience demographics, brand safety considerations, and the ability to integrate with existing demand‑side platforms (DSPs). Technology providers that can bridge data silos and offer unified reporting across these ecosystems will likely capture a larger slice of the $540 billion ad market.
Implications for Ad‑Tech Vendors
Ad‑tech firms should view the forecast as a call to sharpen their product roadmaps. Solutions that support dynamic creative optimization, cross‑platform attribution, and privacy‑compliant data collection will be in higher demand. Additionally, as linear TV’s share shrinks, legacy ad‑servers that specialize in broadcast may need to diversify into programmatic video capabilities or risk obsolescence.
What This Means for Content Creators
Creators on social‑video platforms stand to benefit from the influx of advertising dollars. Higher ad spend translates into larger revenue pools for monetization through ads, brand partnerships, and direct fan contributions. However, the competitive pressure will also increase, pushing creators to adopt more sophisticated production values and data‑driven content strategies to maintain audience share.
Looking Ahead: A New Revenue Baseline
Crossing the $1 trillion threshold will be more than a symbolic milestone; it will establish a new baseline for the media and entertainment industry’s size. Companies that have traditionally measured success against linear TV ratings will need to incorporate multi‑platform metrics into their performance dashboards. The shift also raises questions about the sustainability of ad‑driven growth, especially as privacy regulations evolve and audience attention becomes increasingly fragmented.
Bottom Line
Omdia’s projection underscores a decisive pivot toward digital, ad‑centric video consumption. While linear and pay‑TV models continue to erode, the combined force of social‑video platforms and programmatic advertising is set to reshape the economics of media for the next decade. Brands, agencies, and technology partners that realign their strategies now will be better positioned to capture value in a market that’s rapidly moving past the $1 trillion mark.
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